Exit polls in Israel’s general election suggest neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing bloc nor the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot has secured a clear majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
Projections from Israeli broadcasters initially showed Eisenkot’s Yashar party and its allies in the Change Bloc securing between 52 and 53 seats, compared with about 50 for Netanyahu’s Likud-led coalition. Updated projections later showed the two blocs tied, while one broadcaster gave Netanyahu’s side a narrow lead.
The results could leave Arab political parties holding the balance of power, with the United Arab List and the Joint List projected to win a combined 18 or 19 seats.
Turnout reached 77.7% by the time polling stations closed at 10pm on Tuesday, according to the Central Elections Committee, marking the highest participation at that hour since 1999.
Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot claimed progress following the release of the exit polls, although the final outcome remains uncertain.
Eisenkot told supporters his party had “made history” and pledged to translate voters’ decisions into a government he described as stable and representative of Israel’s citizens. His ally, former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, described Netanyahu’s bloc’s projected performance as a major defeat.
Netanyahu, however, rejected the suggestion that his coalition had lost, declaring that the right-wing bloc had a “great majority” and calling for the formation of a strong right-wing national government.
The Arab parties could prove decisive in coalition negotiations, although cooperation with them remains contentious among Israeli political factions. United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas expressed hope that his party and the Change Bloc could secure the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.
Official results are expected to be published as counting progresses, but approximately 600,000 absentee ballots, including votes cast by military personnel, are not expected to be fully counted until Thursday.
Once the final results are confirmed, Israel’s president will consult political factions before asking the party leader considered most likely to form a government to begin coalition negotiations. The process could take several weeks, and failure to form a government could lead to another election.
The vote is the first Israeli general election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent regional wars involving Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
Key campaign issues included accountability for the security failures surrounding the 2023 attacks, military service obligations, judicial reforms, the conduct of regional conflicts and Israel’s international standing.
The final results will determine whether Netanyahu remains in power or the opposition can assemble a governing coalition.
