The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could continue for at least another year as insecurity, gaps in disease surveillance and challenges facing health workers complicate containment efforts, a leading British epidemiologist has warned.
Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said the scale of the outbreak was likely being underestimated, with only about half of infections believed to be captured by official surveillance systems.
His warning comes as the outbreak approaches 11,000 confirmed cases and 5,000 deaths, making it the second-largest Ebola epidemic on record, after the 2014–2016 West Africa outbreak.
The latest figures reported by Congolese authorities show that 11,042 people have been infected and 5,387 have died.
Ferguson said the outbreak was recording approximately 70 confirmed cases daily, although the actual number could be considerably higher because of missed infections and limited contact tracing.
The epidemic is being driven by the Bundibugyo strain of the Ebola virus, for which there is currently no approved vaccine or specific treatment.
Efforts to contain the disease have also been hampered by attacks on health facilities and medical personnel, shortages of resources and difficulties reaching communities affected by conflict.
The security situation has disrupted contact tracing and left more than 1,000 identified contacts unaccounted for, while three confirmed cases are also missing from follow-up, according to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
Health authorities have warned that continued transmission could further strain the country’s already stretched healthcare system and increase the risk of the virus spreading across borders.
Ferguson’s warning highlights the possibility of a prolonged public health emergency, with sustained surveillance, improved access to affected communities and stronger support for frontline health workers remaining critical to controlling the outbreak.
