The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of significant shifts in global rainfall patterns as a strengthening El Niño event moves towards its expected peak in December.
In its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update released Thursday, WMO said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach record levels during the October-December period.
The organization forecasts the seasonal average Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly to reach about +3.7°C, with the warming expected to peak around December.
That would surpass the previous record of +2.6°C recorded between November 2015 and January 2016, according to WMO.
The strengthening El Niño is expected to influence weather patterns across different parts of the world, increasing the likelihood of above-average temperatures while altering normal rainfall patterns.
WMO said the changes could increase the risk of flooding in some regions and drought in others, depending on how the climate system responds locally.
The latest update shows that the Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, rose from +1.6°C above normal in June to +2.5°C in August.
WMO has also forecast a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, another climate driver that can influence rainfall across countries bordering the Indian Ocean. The phenomenon is expected to peak in October before declining, with a seasonal anomaly of about +0.5°C for October to December.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño is now firmly established and strengthening, with forecasts indicating a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027.
The organisation cautioned that the strength of an El Niño event does not automatically determine the severity of its impacts in every region, as local effects depend on several interacting climate factors.
WMO said the latest forecasts are intended to help governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors prepare for possible weather-related impacts in the coming months.
